China export control escalation (MATCH Act): The most immediate risk as of April 2026. If the MATCH Act passes with allied-nation alignment, it would potentially eliminate not just new DUV system sales to China but also ongoing service and upgrade revenue from the existing Chinese installed base. China generated EUR 9.5 billion in FY2025 (29.1% of total); even at the management-guided approximately 20% level for FY2026, further restriction could reduce China revenue to the low single digits as a percentage of sales on a multi-year horizon.¹²²⁹
Customer concentration: Taiwan (primarily TSMC) at 25.5% and Korea (primarily Samsung and SK Hynix) at 25.0% of FY2025 revenue mean the ordering behavior of two to three customers materially moves consolidated results.¹² A deferral or reduction in EUV tool orders from any of these customers -- as occurred in early 2024 -- can create significant revenue-per-quarter volatility given ASML's build-to-order production model.
High-NA adoption risk and qualification delays: The EXE:5200B entered revenue recognition in Q4 2025, but volume production insertion is projected for 2027-2028 at the earliest. If customer qualification timelines extend -- as they historically do when new lithography generations are introduced -- EXE revenue ramp could push beyond management's projected window, compressing near-term mix benefit. The platform requires significant changes in customer photomask and process flows, adding qualification friction.¹³
Gross margin sustainability: Management guides FY2026 gross margin at 51%-53%, consistent with recent years. However, the trajectory to 56%-60% by 2030 depends on High-NA volume outpacing service cost growth, continued EUV ASP strength, and the absence of pricing pressure from customers who collectively represent a significant fraction of ASML's volume.¹³³⁰
Semiconductor capex cycle volatility: ASML's revenue is downstream of chipmaker capital expenditure decisions. FY2024 demonstrated how quickly order patterns shift: revenue grew only 2.6% despite favorable structural narratives, as customers paused ordering during a demand digestion period.⁸ Any demand shock to AI infrastructure investment would be transmitted to ASML with a 6-18 month lag given the long lead times in its build-and-ship cycle.
Tariff and trade friction broadening: ASML indicated in April 2025 earnings materials that it expects to pass U.S. tariff-related costs to customers where applicable, but U.S.-Netherlands trade friction or broader tariff escalation affecting component imports could complicate supply chain economics and customer pricing relationships.²⁶

ASML: The Sole Architect of Advanced Chip Manufacturing

The Power Delivery Gap