Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) — The Only Profitable Robot Company in the Room

ISRG Q4 FY2025 call was the quietest of the four: no strategic pivots, no paradigm-shift language, no 2030 promises. Just a company that treated 3.1 million patients in 2025 across more than 11,100 installed da Vinci systems, grew full-year revenue 21% to $10.1 billion, and guided for 13-15% procedure growth in 2026.² CEO Rosa opened with the cumulative number — 20 million patients since 1997 — not to dramatize but to anchor: this is what 30 years of physical AI deployment actually produces.

"2025 was a strong year for Intuitive, driven by multispecialty da Vinci procedure growth across the globe... Physicians used our systems to treat more than 3.1 million patients in the year. Since the first procedure in 1997, more than 20 million patients have been treated using Intuitive platforms."
— Dave Rosa, CEO, Intuitive Surgical, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call²

The most forward-looking moment was FDA clearance for cardiac procedures on da Vinci 5. Cardiac is a new disease category after decades in urology, gynecology, and general surgery.² Rosa described the rollout as measured: training pathways, cardiac-specific Force Feedback instruments in development, surgical society partnership. No procedure volume target. The Ion lung biopsy platform grew 51% in procedures for FY2025, approaching 1,000 systems installed globally, with ROSE tissue evaluation and endobronchial ultrasound integration ahead.² Single-port procedures grew 87% for the full year with the installed base up 39% to 377 systems.²

"We are excited to fully launch our Force Feedback instruments and work with customers to establish the clinical impact of Force Feedback at scale."
— Dave Rosa, CEO, Intuitive Surgical, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call²

CFO Jamie Samath reported recurring revenue — instruments, accessories, and service — accounted for 81% of Q4 revenue.⁸ Full-year free cash flow reached $2.5 billion, up from $1.3 billion in 2024, driven by profitability improvement and lower CapEx.¹¹ Pro forma EPS grew 22% for the third consecutive year above 20%.² Headwinds are real: 95 basis points of gross margin pressure from tariffs, local-supplier competition in China provincial tenders, government budget pressure in Japan and the UK. None of them change the structural position. ISRG moat is 20 million treated patients, 10,000 trained surgeons, and a recurring instrument revenue stream that continues regardless of which humanoid robot wins.

"2025 pro forma EPS increased 22%, marking the third consecutive year of pro forma EPS growth above 20%."
— Jamie Samath, CFO, Intuitive Surgical, Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call²

ABB (ABB) — Selling the Robot Division at the Top of the Hype Cycle

ABB Q3 FY2025 was headlined not by record $9.1 billion revenues or 9% comparable order growth but by the robotics division sale to SoftBank Group for $5.375 billion enterprise value, an inbound bid that superseded the planned spin-off.⁴ Wierod explained: the robotics business needs SoftBank state-of-the-art capabilities in AI, robotics and next-generation computing that ABB could not build internally. The Robotics division generated approximately $2.4 billion in trailing revenue and roughly $300 million in operational EBITA — a 12.5% margin, well below ABB group average of 19.2%.⁴

"It is our firm belief that the robotics business will benefit from combining its leading technology and industry expertise with SoftBank's state-of-the-art capabilities in AI, robotics and next-generation computing. We think this will create a very strong platform for the future and expect the deal to close in the second half of 2026."
— Morten Wierod, CEO, ABB, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call⁴

The robotics order book told its own story. Automotive and general industry remained weak. Consumer electronics and logistics were the pockets of growth. Machine Automation was running at breakeven after seven consecutive quarters of combined segment revenue decline.⁴ ABB industrial robots do deterministic programmed tasks. The generalist, AI-native robots emerging from Tesla Optimus and NVIDIA Isaac require a fundamentally different technology stack, closer to vision-language-action models than to teach-and-repeat programming. By accepting $5.375 billion — approximately 18x trailing robotics revenue — for a business just returning to single-digit growth,¹² ABB captured what may prove to be peak valuation for the traditional industrial robot model.

"The reason for the change is that in parallel to us working towards the earlier announced spin-off, we received an inbound bid from SoftBank based on an enterprise value of close to $5.4 billion. When such bids come in, it's our fiduciary duty to review."
— Morten Wierod, CEO, ABB, Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call⁴

Post-sale, ABB redirects toward three business areas: Electrification, Motion, and Process Automation. Data center power infrastructure is already growing at double-digit order rates.⁴ ABB U.S. orders were up 27% in Q3, and the company sees data centers as a multi-year structural growth market. The $5.3 billion in net sale proceeds will fund acquisitions in electrification and automation. ABB has made the same AI infrastructure bet as everyone else in this report, but from the electrical power side: every AI factory needs power before it needs robots.

Robots, Real and Promised: A Cross-Earnings Intelligence Report on Physical AI

The Power Delivery Gap