Cybercab production has started. Tesla confirmed during the call that Cybercab production has begun at Gigafactory Texas, with cumulative autonomous miles reaching 1.7 million across the commercial Robotaxi fleet.⁸ Musk acknowledged the ramp will follow an extended S-curve: initial volumes will be slow as the company resolves more than 10,000 unique new-product items across an entirely new supply chain. Production is expected to accelerate toward year-end and scale further in 2027. Robotaxi commercial operations expanded from Austin to Dallas and Houston using the v14.3 software architecture, with a stated goal of reaching approximately a dozen states by year-end 2026.¹ Musk characterized Robotaxi revenue as immaterial in 2026 but potentially significant in 2027.

Model S/X production ends; Fremont converts to Optimus assembly. Final Model S/X production is scheduled for early May, after which Tesla will dismantle the existing line and install Optimus assembly equipment. Starter production at Fremont is targeted for late July or August 2026, with a second Optimus factory under construction at Gigafactory Texas targeting production around summer 2027.¹ This is the most significant factory reallocation in Tesla's recent history, converting a flagship facility from a mature revenue-generating product to a pre-revenue humanoid robot line. The Optimus V3 design is nearly finalized but is being withheld from public disclosure to limit competitor intelligence-gathering from frame-by-frame analysis.

CapEx raised $5 billion to more than $25 billion for 2026. Prior guidance was approximately $20 billion; the new commitment funds six factories moving toward operation, a $3 billion research semiconductor fabrication facility at Gigafactory Texas, AI infrastructure for Robotaxi and Optimus, and production lines for Cybercab, Semi, Megapack 3, and Optimus.¹ The Terafab initiative will be led initially by SpaceX using Intel's 14A process node, with Tesla operating the smaller on-campus research fab. SpaceX-Tesla intercompany arrangements require independent board review and conflict-of-interest resolution for shareholders of both entities.

FSD regulatory approvals breakthrough in Europe and China. Tesla received approval for supervised Full Self-Driving in the Netherlands, with EU-wide approval targeted for Q2 FY2026 following Brussels review in May. China regulatory approval is targeted for Q3 FY2026.¹ Globally, paid FSD customers reached nearly 1.3 million, with growth driven predominantly by subscriptions after Tesla removed the upfront purchase option in several markets — upfront purchases grew only 7% while subscriptions expanded faster.¹ A critical hardware constraint also crystallized on the call: Hardware 3 vehicles cannot achieve unsupervised FSD due to one-eighth the memory bandwidth of Hardware 4. Tesla is planning dedicated hardware upgrade facilities in major metropolitan areas to address this limitation.

Tesla: Margin Recovery Meets the $25 Billion Capital Escalation

The Power Delivery Gap